目录
摘要 III
关键词 III
Abstract IV
引言
一、绪论 1
（一）研究背景与研究意义 1
1.研究背景 1
2.研究意义 1
（二）研究内容与研究方法 1
1.研究内容 1
2.研究方法 2
（三）对外直接投资贸易效应理论基础及文献综述 2
1.对外直接投资贸易效应理论——静态分析 2
2.对外直接投资贸易效应理论一一不确定效应 3
（四）创新点与难点 4
（五）技术路线 4
二、直接投资影响出口贸易机理分析 6
（一）一般均衡模型 6
（二）直接投资影响出口商品结构的机理分析 7
（三）本章小结 8
三、中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资与对外贸易现状分析 9
（一）“一带一路”沿线国家对中国直接投资现状 9
1.规模和增速 9
2.地区分布 10
3.行业分布 11
（二）中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资现状 11
1.规模和增速 11
2.地区分布 13
3.行业分布 14
（三）中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易现状 16
1.出口规模 16
2.区域分布 16
3.贸易结构 17
（四）本章小结 19
四、中国对“一带一路”沿线国家FDI与ODI贸易效应实证分析 20
（一）变量选择 20
（二）模型构建 22
（三）模型估计及结果分析 23
（四）不同收入水平国家FDI和ODI出口贸易效应 26
（五）本章小结 29
五、结论与政策建议 30
（一）结论 30
（二）政策建议 30
参考文献 32
致谢 33
“一带一路”沿线国家FDI和ODI出口贸易效应比较
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自我国“引进来”和“走出去”战略提出以来，中国吸引外商直接投资和对外直接投资规模增长迅速，同时，我国出口规模增速正逐渐放缓，出口产品结构亟待优化，中国对外经济与贸易发展进入新常态的时期，人口红利逐渐消退，产能过剩问题不断显现，新的动力需要被挖掘。本文结合理论分析，现状分析以及实证分析对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家外商直接投资（FDI）与对外直接投资（ODI）对出口贸易的影响进行系统梳理和比较，结果显示：“一带一路”国家对中国的直接投资对出口贸易并没有显著影响，而中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资对出口贸易，尤其是劳动密集型产品的出口,有显著的推动作用。在此基础上，本文提出以下政策建议，包括通过不同的优惠政策吸引FDI流向中国特定行业特定地区以促进产业优化，国内产业结构的改善又能够进一步影响出口；增加对“一带一路”沿线国家中低收入水平国家的投资，这些国家的需求结构更适合转移我国过剩的产能。
COMPARISON OF FDI AND ODI EXPORT TRADE EFFECTS IN THE COUNTRIES ALONG THE “BELT AND ROAD” ROUTE
ABSTRACT
Since the introduction of Chinas " Bringing In" and "Going Out", the scale of Chinas foreign direct investment and outward foreign direct investment has increased rapidly. At the same time, the growth rate of Chinas export scale is gradually slowing down, and the structure of export products needs to be optimized urgently. Chinas foreign economic and trade development has entered a new normal period.With the demographic dividend gradually receded and the problem of excess capacity constantly emerging, new power needs to be tapped. Based on theoretical analysis, current situation analysis and empirical analysis, this paper makes a systematic analysis and comparison of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign direct investment (ODI) on export trade between China and the Belt and Road countries, it is concluded that direct investment from "Belt and Road" countries to China has no significant impact on export trade, while direct investment from China to countries along the "Belt and Road" has significant impact on export trade, in particular laborintensive products, has a significant role in promoting. On this basis, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations, including through different preferential policies to attract FDI to specific industries and specific regions of China to promote industrial optimization, because the improvement of domestic industrial structure can further affect exports; Increase investment in lowand middleincome countries along the "Belt and Road" , where demand is better suited to divert our excess capacity.

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