目录
摘 要
关键词
Abstract
引言
引言
二、文献综述
（一）中俄农产品贸易现状
（二）中俄农产品贸易的影响因素及贸易潜力分析
（三）文献评述
三、中国对俄农产品出口规模、结构以及份额变动趋势分析
（一）中国对俄农产品出口规模
（二）中国对俄农产品出口商品结构变化
（三）中国对俄农产品出口占一带一路沿线国家的份额变化
四、中国对俄罗斯农产品出口份额下降的初步解释：基于贸易数据的描述性分析
（一）俄罗斯农产品进口需求分析
（二）中国对俄农产品出口竞争力分析
（三）中国对俄农产品出口互补性分析
五、中国对俄罗斯农产品份额下降的实证验证：基于CMS模型的分析
（一）模型构建
（二）实证结果
（三）实证结果的解释
六、研究结论与政策建议
（一）基本结论
（二）政策建议
1、调整优化出口结构，提高产品多样性
2、提高农业生产技术，推进农业科技创新
3、提高中俄农产品的互补性
参考文献
致谢
“一带一路”背景下中国对俄农产品出口影响因素分析：基于CMS模型的分解
摘 要
“一带一路”战略提出后,凭借中俄两国良好的双边关系，中国和俄罗斯的双边贸易不仅规模很大，且增速很快。然而，作为对外贸易重要组成部分，当前中俄农产品贸易的发展水平却比较低下，且在中国与一带一路沿线国家的农产品贸易迅速发展的背景下，中国对俄罗斯农产品出口占一带一路沿线国家出口的份额却呈现持续下降的态势。本文在总结前人研究的基础上，分析了中国对俄罗斯农产品出口的贸易竞争力和互补性，初步揭示中国对俄罗斯农产品出口乏力的原因，并引入CMS模型，重点探讨在一带一路背景下中国对俄罗斯农产品出口额占对一带一路沿线国家出口总份额下降的原因，在分析未来中俄农产品贸易潜力的基础上，丰富和深化农产品贸易理论，从现实的 *51今日免费论文网|www.jxszl.com +Q: ￥351916072￥ 
角度出发，提出具有实践性意义的对策。
ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CHINA’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS TO RUSSIA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF ONE BELT AND ONE ROAD: DECOMPOSITION BASED ON CMS MODEL
ABSTRACT
After the One Belt And One Road strategy was proposed, the bilateral trade between China and Russia is not only large in scale but also growing rapidly thanks to the good bilateral relations between the two countries. However, as an important part of foreign trade, the current development level of agricultural products trade between Russia and China is relatively low. In the context of the rapid development of agricultural products trade between China and One Belt And One Road countries along the One Belt And One Road route, the share of Chinas agricultural products exports to Russia in the exports of One Belt And One Road countries along the route shows a trend of continuous decline. On the basis of summarizing the predecessors research, this paper analyzes Chinas trade competitiveness of agricultural products export to Russia and complementarity, preliminary reveals the cause of Chinas agricultural exports to Russia fatigue, and introduce the CMS model, the paper mainly discusses the area under the background of Chinese agricultural exports to Russia accounted for area all the way all the way along the total national export share decline reason, on the basis of analysis of agricultural trade between China and Russia in the future potential, enrich and deepen the agricultural product trade theory, from the perspective of reality, and puts forward some countermeasures has practical significance.

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