目录
摘要Ⅱ
关键词Ⅱ
AbstractⅢ
引言
一、引言1
二、模型构建与数据说明2
（一）随机前沿引力分析模型2
（二）贸易效率影响因素分析模型3
（三）样本选取及数据来源4
三、随机前沿引力模型回归结果4
四、贸易效率估算及影响因素分析6
（一）贸易效率测算6
（二）贸易效率影响因素分析8
五、结论与建议 10
参考文献11
致谢13
中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易效率及影响因素分析
摘 要
本文采用随机前沿的方法，利用时变型随机前沿引力模型，对中国与“一带一路”沿线各伙伴国的贸易潜力进行估算，并计算出中国对沿线国家的出口贸易效率。在此基础上分析决定两国国际贸易效率的因素，并进一步分析会对贸易效率产生影响的各类因素。研究结果显示：沿线国家经济发展水平越高、总人口数量越多、与我国的距离越近、是沿海国家均会显著提升中国对对应沿线国家的国际贸易效率；对贸易效率的估算结果进一步探究发现，“一带一路”倡议的提出、伙伴国班轮运输能力的提升、港口基础设施建设的发展、与中国完成自由贸易协定的签订均会提高中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口贸易效率。针对上述结论，本文进一步探讨了相应的政策建议：推动陆上交通网络发展、加快自由贸易区建设步伐、重视与沿线国家的文化交流、积极发展“互联网+”贸易模式、深化金融领域合作等，以期为促进“一带一路”的良好发展提供参考。
Analysis of Trade Efficiency and Influencing Factors between China and Countries Along Belt and Road
ABSTRACT
This paper uses the stochastic frontier analysis method, uses the timevarying stochastic frontier gravity model to calculate the trade potential of *51今日免费论文网|www.jxszl.com +Q: @351916072@ 
China and the countries along the "Belt and Road ". Then, the paper calculates the export trade efficiency of China to these trading partners along this route. On this basis, the factors determining the international trade efficiency of the two countries are analyzed, and the various factors that will affect the trade efficiency are further analyzed. The results show that the higher the level of economic development, the more the total population, the closer the distance with China, the coastal countries will significantly improve the efficiency of Chinas export trade to the corresponding countries along the route. The proposal of the "one way" initiative, the improvement of the liner shipping connectivity of the countries along the route, the development of port infrastructure, and the completion of the free trade agreement with China will all improve the efficiency of Chinas export trade to the countries along the partners. In view of the above conclusions, this paper further discusses the corresponding policy suggestions: to promote the development of land transportation network, to speed up the construction of free trade area, to attach importance to cultural exchanges with countries along the route, to actively develop the "Internet" trade model, and to deepen cooperation in the financial field, so as to provide a reference for promoting the good development of "Belt and Road ".
KEY WORDS：Belt and Road; Trade Potential; Trade Efficiency; Stochastic Frontier Analysis
引言
自“一带一路”倡议提出以来，我国与沿线国家的国际贸易迅速发展，进出口贸易往来日益频繁，成为我国对外经济中必不可少的重要组成部分。并且“一带一路”相关国家的贸易问题也与世界贸易的发展息息相关，该问题已经成为关乎世界经济发展的重要问题，引起了国内外相关学者的广泛关注。对于国家之间贸易的研究首先关注的便是一国的贸易潜力，在了解贸易潜力的基础上进一步分析两国进行国际贸易的效率，即实际发生的贸易额与既定资源禀赋条件下可能产生的最大贸易额即贸易潜力的比值，以此来对两国的贸易条件和影响因素进行分析，从而更好地发展国际贸易。

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