目录
摘要Ⅱ
关键词Ⅱ
AbstractⅢ
引言
1引言1
2 材料与方法2
2.1 数据来源2
2.2 层次聚类模型 2
2.3 主成分分析2
2.4 多元回归模型3
2.5 最小二乘估计4
2.6 显著性分析4
3 城市经济水平的聚类分析5
3.1 城市经济发展水平分析5
3.2 层次聚类模型 5
4 高铁对城市经济影响的宏观角度分析7
4.1 地区指标对比7
4.1.1 总人口数7
4.1.2 地区生产总值8
4.1.3 第三产业占GDP比值8
5 高铁对城市经济影响的量化分析9
5.1 对城市经济增长的影响9
5.1.1 建立经济综合指标9
5.1.2 多元回归模型9
5.1.3 最小二乘估计10
5.1.4 显著性分析10
5.2 对城市经济潜力的影响分析11
5.3 对城市可达性的影响分析11
6 讨论13
6.1 论文工作总结13
6.2 研究展望13
致谢14
参考文献15
附录16
获得学术成果25
高铁对部分城市经济发展的影响分析
摘 要
经过近十年的飞速发展，中国高铁的里程和技术都有了长足的进步，为探究高铁对部分城市经济发展的影响，本文通过聚类算法对开通高铁的城市分组，选取出部分代表城市，即北京、广州、武汉、成都、合肥和岳阳，先在定性分析中对比总人口数、地区生产总值和第三产业占比在高铁开通前后的变化，得出高铁对城市经济发展具有积极影响的结论。再建立多元回归模型分析开通高铁对城市经济的影响，对于因变量，考虑城市生产总值和基于多个经济指标得到的第一主成分；对于自变量，本文设立了包括是否开通高铁这一虚拟变量在内的两组变量，在四组回归模型中对虚拟变量对应的回归参数进行最小二乘估计，并对该估计值进行显著性分析，结果表 *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: ￥351916072$ 
明高铁对城市发展具有显著的促进影响。在分析城市的经济潜力与可达性方面，根据具体模型计算得出各城市的指标值及变化率，分析了宏观层面上高铁对城市的影响程度。最后本文对分析方法及结论进行总结，讨论可以进一步研究和改进的地方。
ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHSPEED RAIL ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CITIES
ABSTRACT
After nearly ten years of rapid development, Chinas highspeed rail have made considerable progress and decisive impact in mileage and technology. In order to explore the impact of highspeed rail on the economic development of some cities, this paper selects some representative cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Hefei and Yueyang, by clustering algorithm. First, in the qualitative analysis, it compares the changes of the total population, the total regional production value and the proportion of the tertiary industry before and after the opening of highspeed rail, and concludes that highspeed rail has a significant positive impact on the urban economic development. Then, a multiple regression model is established to analyze the influence of the opening of highspeed rail on the urban economy. For the dependent variables, the urban GDP and the first principal component based on multiple economic indicators are considered. For the independent variables, two groups of variables are set up, including the virtual variable whether to open highspeed rail or not. In the four groups of regression model, the regression parameters corresponding to the virtual variables are least squares estimated, the results show that highspeed rail has a significant impact on urban development. In terms of analyzing the economic potential and accessibility of cities, the index value and change rate of each city are calculated according to the specific model, and the impact degree of highspeed rail on cities at the macro level is analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the analysis methods and conclusions, and discusses the areas that can be further studied and improved.

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