目录
摘要I
关键词I
AbstractII
引言
1 材料与方法1
1.1 材料 1
1.1.1 研究意义1
1.1.2 研究背景1
1.1.3 研究现状1
1.2 方法 2
1.2.1 Logistic模型2
1.2.2 SturmLiouville边值问题3
1.2.3 Leslie模型4
1.3 实验 4
1.3.1 存在问题4
1.3.2 模型选择5
1.3.3 实验方法5
2 结果与分析6
2.1 结果6
2.1.2 SturmLiouville边值问题6
2.1.3 Leslie模型6
2.2 分析7
2.2.2 SturmLiouville边值问题7
2.2.3 Leslie模型7
3 讨论 9
3.1 应用9
3.2 总结9
致谢10
参考文献11
附录1 人口数及构成12
附录2 按年龄和性别分人口数12
附录3 育龄妇女分年龄、孩次的生育状况13
附录4 中国总和生育率14
附录5 程序代码14
基于我国二胎开放后人口增长的预测模型
摘要
从1982年开始，中国政府制定了一项基本国策，这就是举世闻名的计划生育政策。然而，政策实施一段时间以后，中国的生育率不断下降，直到一个很低的生育率水平。在这种情况下，党的十八届三中全会在这方面对政策进行了调整和改进，并明确提出了“单独二胎”政策，如果夫妻至少一方为独生子女可生育二胎，这是《人口与计划生育法》的依法实现。“单独二胎”政策在我国的实施，对于我国过低的生育率究竟发挥怎样的作用，能否达成政策实施的预想状态，已然是当今亟待解决的问题。
因此，预选采用SturmL *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: &351916072& 
iouville边值问题、Logistic模型和Leslie模型，对“单独二胎”政策实施后中国的生育率情况进行分析，可为预测中国的生育率发展趋势提供参考。以Logistic模型和Leslie模型为基础模型，通过设立相应的参数即可建立人口结构预测模型。将Logistic模型通过转化为SturmLiouville边值问题，利用稳态解观点等相关结论进行研究。Leslie模型在对传统模型的理解的基础上进行改进，可用于预测不拘于总量的更多数据，对比其他模型更灵活的同时也更加准确。根据这种方法所建立的模型，可以结合不同时期的具体国情，具有较好的推广性和普适性，可以用于准确预测中国实施“二胎政策”政策后的人口状态。
ABSTRACT
Since 1982, China has made family planning a basic state policy and strictly enforced the onechild policy. However, after the policy was implemented for some time, Chinas fertility rate continued to decline to a very low level. In this case, the third plenary session of the 18th CPC central committee adjusted and improved the policy in this regard, and clearly put forward the policy of "single second child", if at least one spouse is an only child can have a second child, which is the legal implementation of the population and family planning law. However, whether the implementation of the "single second child" policy can completely change the current low fertility situation in China government to modify the birth policy has become an urgent problem to be solved at the present stage.
Therefore, SturmLiouville boundary value problem, Logistic model and Leslie model were used in the preliminary selection to analyze the fertility rate in China after the implementation of the "single twochild" policy, which can provide a reference for predicting the development trend of Chinas fertility rate. Based on the Logistic model and Leslie model, the population structure prediction model can be established by setting the corresponding parameters. The Logistic model was transformed into SturmLiouville boundary value problem, and relevant conclusions such as steadystate solution were used to study. The Leslie model is improved on the basis of the understanding of the traditional model and can be used to predict more data regardless of the total amount. Compared with other models, it is more flexible and more accurate. The model established according to this method can be combined with the specific national conditions in different periods, which is of good generalization and universality, and can be used to accurately predict the population status after the implementation of the "twochild policy" in China.

原文链接：http://www.jxszl.com/jsj/xxaq/606966.html