目录
摘要II
关键词II
AbstractIII
引言
引言1
1 模型建立1
1.1 国内外研究现状1
1.2 模型改进 2
1.2.1引入新人群——暂时免疫者2
1.2.2社交网络中与谣言传播有关的人群分类2
1.2.3 各类人群变化的微分方程3
1.3 辟谣信息对谣言传播的影响5
1.3.1 在有辟谣信息的条件下与谣言传播有关的人群分类5
1.3.2 各类人群的变化规律及微分方程6
2 仿真模拟结果8
2.1 参数确认和仿真模拟8
2.1.1 仿真模拟结果8
2.1.2 始作俑者数量对谣言传播的影响9
2.1.3 网民素质和“不传谣，不信谣”观念对谣言传播的影响11
2.2 辟谣信息对谣言传播的影响12
2.2.1 发布辟谣信息后的仿真模拟12
2.2.2 辟谣信息发布时机对谣言传播的影响13
3 分析与结论13
3.1模型分析结论13
3.2 模型优缺点14
3.2.1 模型优点14
3.2.2 模型缺点15
致谢15
参考文献16
附录A17
附录B18
基于SEIR模型的关于新型冠状病毒的谣言传播研究
摘 要
自新冠肺炎病毒爆发以来，有关疫情的谣言层出不穷，很多谣言都具有极大的社会危害性。研究谣言在社交网络平台上的传播规律对控制谣言传播，维护网络秩序具有重要意义。本文以微博这一在线社交网络平台为例，在以往模拟谣言传播机制的SEIR模型的基础上，进行了适当的改进，除了之前易感者、接触者、传播者、免疫者的人群分类外，引入了暂时免疫者这一新人群，来模拟接触谣言后暂时持怀疑态度的一类人，更全面的展现了面对谣言时人们的各种心理。仿真模拟的结果表明改进后的SEIR模型符合谣言在真实的社交网络中传播的特性，并且发现对谣言持怀疑态度的人不在少数，但是在后期谣言大范围传播时，他们逐渐相信了 *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: ￥351916072￥ 
谣言。本文还尝试研究了有关部门辟谣信息的发布对谣言传播的影响。在对之前的人群分类做了适当调整的基础上，再次引入了一类新人群——辟谣者，来模拟那些接触并转发辟谣信息的人，仿真模拟的结果表面辟谣信息的发布对谣言的遏制作用十分明显，也证实了有关部门尽快辟谣的重要性。
A STUDY ON THE SPREAD OF COVID19 RUMORS BASED ON SEIR MODEL
ABSTRACT
Since the outbreak of covid19, there have been numerous rumors about the epidemic, many of which are extremely harmful to society. It is of great significance to study the propagation rules of rumors on social network platforms to control rumor propagation and maintain the order of the network. Based on weibo that online social networking platform, for example, in the past simulation rumors spread mechanism of SEIR model, on the basis of the appropriate improvement, in addition to susceptible people before, contacts, communicators, the crowd of immune classification, introduced the temporary immune the new people, to simulate the contact after rumors temporary skeptical about the kind of person, more comprehensive show the people of all kinds of psychological in the face of rumors. Simulation results show that the improved SEIR model conforms to the characteristics of rumor propagation in real social networks, and it is found that there are many people who are skeptical of rumors, but they gradually believe the rumors when they are widely spread in the later stage. This paper also tries to study the influence of the release of rumor refuting information by relevant departments on rumor propagation. On the basis of making appropriate adjustments to the previous crowd classification, a new group of people rumor refuters were introduced to simulate those who contacted and forwarded rumor refuting information. The simulation results showed that the publication of rumor refuting information had a significant effect on rumor suppression, which also confirmed the importance of relevant departments to refute rumors as soon as possible.

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