目录
摘要4
Abstract5
引言
一、研究综述6
（一）理论综述6
（二）实证综述7
二、实证分析8
（一）模型设计8
（二）数据来源与处理8
1．关键变量8
2．控制变量9
（三）实证检验10
1．描述性统计10
2．相关性分析11
3．ADF检验11
4．回归结果11
（四）中美贸易战的影响分析13
四、结论与建议13
（一）实证结果分析13
（二）政策建议13
1．金融监管部门13
2．投资者14
3．企业14
致谢14
参考文献15
图1 人民币兑美元汇率走势9
图2 上证综指10
图3 进出口金额10
表1变量汇总表8
表2变量描述性统计10
表3主要变量相关性矩阵11
表4 ADF检验表11
表5回归结果表11
中美贸易战背景下人民币汇率波动对股价的影响—基于A股市场的实证分析
摘 要
本文基于2010年1月至2019年12月的月度数据，通过建立多元回归模型并引入虚拟变量研究中美贸易战前后人民币兑美元汇率与股票价格之间的关系并且在模型中加入了三个控制变量以控制进出口贸易、通货膨胀因素以及利率变化的影响。研究结果表明，中国的股票市场和外汇市场之间拥有显著的相关性且相互影响，发生了中美贸易战后，虚拟变量和股票价格在1%的水平上负相关，即汇率的下降加剧了股票价格的下跌。本文的研究结果验证中国将外汇管制放开后会改变外汇市场和股票市场之间的关系。从宏观角度上来说，中国的外汇市场和股票市场之间存在着一定的关联性，在全球经济之间的关联不断深化的今天，中国股市和汇市的关联性也在逐渐加深。据此实证结果，本文做出了具体的分析并提出了相关的政策建议。
The influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation  *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: ^351916072^ 
on stock price under the background of Sino US trade war
ABSTRACT
Based on between January 2010 and December 2019, the monthly data, through the establishment of plural regression model and introducing virtual variables before and after the study of a trade war with China and the relationship between the stock price of their currency against the us dollar and add the three control variables in the model to control the import and export trade, inflation, and the influence of interest rate changes. The results show that Chinas stock market and foreign exchange market have a significant correlation and influence each other. After the sinoamerican trade war, dummy variables and stock prices are negatively correlated at the level of 1%, that is, the decline of exchange rate intensifies the decline of stock prices. The results of this paper verify that the liberalization of Chinas foreign exchange control will change the relationship between the foreign exchange market and the stock market. From a macro perspective, there is a certain correlation between Chinas foreign exchange market and the stock market. Today, with the deepening correlation between the global economy, the correlation between Chinas stock market and the foreign exchange market is also gradually deepening. Based on the empirical results, this paper makes a concrete analysis and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
Key words: exchange rate of RMB；stock price；Sino US trade war；Multiple regression model

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