目录
摘要4
关键词4
Abstract5
Key words5
引言
一、国内外文献综述6
（一）相关概念6
1.生存分析理论6
2.P2P平台“死亡”的界定7
（二）国内外文献综述7
1.P2P网络贷款的发展7
2.P2P网络贷款平台经营研究7
3.生存分析方法研究8
二、理论分析及模型选择8
（一）P2P网络借贷平台“死亡”风险理论分析8
1.注册资本8
2.所在地9
3.平台背景9
4.资金托管9
5.自动投标9
6.债权转让10
（二）研究模型的选择10
1.寿命表法10
2.乘积极限法10
3. Cox比例风险回归模型10
三、实证分析11
（一）变量选择与数据来源11
1.变量选择11
2.数据来源12
（二）描述性统计12
1.寿命表法分析12
2. Cox生存分析模型的描述性统计分析15
（三）实证分析18
1. Cox生存分析模型的指标检验18
2. Cox生存分析模型的构建22
四、研究结论与政策建议22
（一）研究结论22
1. 寿命表的分析结果中得出的P2P网贷平台的生存时间规律23
2. 进行描述性统计分析对六个指标进行筛选23
（二）政策建议23
1. 对P2P平台来说23
2. 对政府监管部门来说23
3. 对投资者来说23
致谢23
参考文献24
P2P网络借贷平台“死亡”风险研究——基于生存分析模型
摘 要
自进入21实际以来，经济一直在增长，互联网技术也越来越发达，互联网金融渐渐变成了大势所趋。P2P网络贷款也就应运而生，中国第一家P2P网贷平台“拍拍贷” *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: @351916072@ 
在07年建立于上海，这开启了中国P2P的市场，在这之后我国P2P数量和交易额开始迅猛增长。然而，由于平台管理问题、风险控制水平不足以及相关政策匮乏，在P2P网贷平台数量迅速增长的同时，其风险也与日俱增。本文主要从企业生存时间长短的角度探讨了P2P平台的注册资本、所在地、平台背景等因素是如何影响P2P平台运营寿命的，在研究得出的结果的基础上，对P2P平台、相关政府部门以及投资者提出合理建议。首先，使用SPSS的寿命表方法，研究P2P平台整体生存分布规律，然后使用K W检验、K M法以及LR检验进行显著性检验。最后，通过构建Cox生存分析模型可得，平台背景和资金托管均会显著影响P2P平台的死亡率。因此，应该提高行业门槛、强制资金托管，同时加强业务指导、降低风险。
RESEARCH ON THE “DEATH” RISK OF P2P LENDING PLATFORM——BASED ON THE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS MODEL
ABSTRACT
Since entering the 21st century, the economy has been growing, the Internet technology has become more and more developed, and the Internet finance has gradually become the general trend. P2P network loan came into being. The first P2P network loan platform in China was established in Shanghai in 2007, which opened the P2P market in China. After that, the number and transaction volume of P2P in China began to grow rapidly. However, due to the lack of platform management, risk control level and relevant policies, the number of P2P online lending platforms is growing rapidly, while its risk is also increasing day by day. This paper mainly discusses how the registered capital, location, platform background and other factors of P2P platform affect the operation life of P2P platform from the perspective of enterprise survival time, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to relevant government departments and investors according to the research results. Firstly, the life table method of SPSS is used to study the overall survival distribution of P2P platform, and then the significance test is carried out by using the K W test, K M test and LR analysis. Finally, through the construction of Cox survival analysis model, it can be concluded that platform background and fund hosting will significantly affect the mortality of P2P platform. Therefore, we should raise the threshold of the industry, enforce the trusteeship of funds, strengthen the business guidance and promote the sound development.

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