目录
摘要Ⅱ
关键词Ⅱ
AbstractⅢ
引言
引言1
文献综述1
国外研究1
（二）国内研究2
三、我国旅游服务贸易出口现状3
四、计量模型与数据说明4
（一）汇率变动对旅游服务贸易影响的计量模型4
（二）数据选取与处理6
五、实证结果与分析8
（一）共线性检验8
（二）汇率变动对我国旅游服务贸易出口的影响分析8
（三）汇率变动对选择我国旅游服务贸易出口概率的影响分析
9
六、研究结论与政策建议 10
（一）基本结论10
（二）政策建议11
参考文献11
致谢13
汇率变动对我国旅游服务贸易出口的影响研究
摘 要
目前，在经济全球化趋势越来越明显背景下，我国的经济得到了高速发展，同时也迫切地需要产业转型。服务贸易高附加值和高技术含量的特点日益明显，服务贸易在我国贸易中的地位越来越重要。而旅游服务贸易则是服务贸易的主要支撑，2018年，我国旅游服务贸易总额为3163亿美元，在服务占服务贸易总额的40%。而汇率则会通过价格效应和收入效应影响我国旅游服务贸易出口。本文将以入境旅游人数以及国外游客选择我国旅游概率增长与否作为反映旅游服务贸易出口的指标，利用面板数据，实证分析汇率变动对我国旅游服务出口的影响的影响。研究结果表明，汇率变动会对我国旅游服务贸易出口数量产生显著影响，名义汇率每变动1%，我国旅游服务贸易出口总数将增加0.59%，外国游客存在跟着汇率波动进行旅游的消费模式，即“跟着汇率去旅游”，但汇率变动对外国游客选择中国旅游的概率影响不显著。最后提出合理建议，促进汇率对我国旅游服务贸易的宏观调控。
STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES TO CHINA’S TOURISM SERVICES TRADE EXPORT
ABSTRACT
At present, under the background of m *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: ^351916072# 
ore and more obvious trend of economic globalization, Chinas economy has achieved rapid development and urgently needs industrial transformation. Service trade is characterized by high added value and high technical content, so service trade is becoming more and more important in Chinas trade. Tourism service trade is the main support of service trade. In 2018, Chinas tourism service trade totaled us $316.3 billion, accounting for 40% of the total trade in services. The exchange rate will affect Chinas tourism service trade export through price effect and income effect. This paper will take the number of inbound tourists and the growth rate of foreign tourists choice of Chinas tourism probability as the indicators to reflect the tourism service trade export, and use the panel data to empirically analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Chinas tourism service export. The results show that the exchange rate changes will have a significant impact on the number of Chinas tourism service trade export, the nominal exchange rate changes every 1%, Chinas tourism trade in services exports will increase by 0.59% in the total number of foreign tourists there follow the consumption pattern of exchange rate fluctuations in tourism, namely "travel with exchange rate", but exchange rate changes to foreign visitors choose the probability of China tourism effect was not significant. Finally, reasonable Suggestions are put forward to promote the macrocontrol of the exchange rate on Chinas tourism service trade.

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