目录
摘要Ⅱ
关键词Ⅱ
AbstractⅢ
引言
一、引言1
二、文献回顾2
（一）复杂网络分析的理论基础2
1.随机网模型2
2.小世界模型2
3.无标度模型3
（二）基于复杂网络分析的国际能源贸易研究3
（三）基于复杂网络分析的贸易竞合关系研究5
三、分析框架与数据来源6
（一）模型构建6
1.金砖国家能源贸易无权网络模型的构建6
2.贸易竞争及互补关系块模型的构建6
（二）变量选取8
1.网络密度8
2.网络中心度8
3.聚类系数8
（三）数据说明9
四、实证结果与分析9
（一）金砖国家能源贸易网络结构分析9
1.网络密度分析10
2.网络中心性分析10
3.小团体化分析12
（二）金砖国家能源贸易竞争及互补关系分析13
1.贸易关系对比分析13
2.显著贸易关系网络的块模型分析14
五、研究结论与政策建议17
参考文献18致谢20复杂网络视角下金砖国家间能源贸易的演化特征及竞争互补关系
摘 要
随着金砖国家经济的迅速发展，能源贸易越来越成为缓解能源缺乏、发挥能源禀赋、优化能源结构的重要议题。本文以煤炭、石油、天然气三类能源商品为例，基于复杂网络理论建立金砖国家衍生出的能源贸易网络，探究20092018年贸易网络结构和贸易竞争互补关系的演化特征。研究表明，天然气网络的连通性始终较高，贸易关系种类日趋复杂；煤炭和石油网络的连通性较低，小团体化相对明显。金砖国家中，印度占据网络核心地位，中国、俄罗斯、南非的网络优势地位明显，巴西的网络地位相对较弱。基于块模型的贸易关系分析显示，十年间我国同主要贸易竞争对手位于兼顾型板块中，与该板块内的国家乃至整个贸易网络存在广泛的能源贸易竞争关系；此外，板块内外贸易关系的互补性有增强趋势，能源出口机会不断涌现。本文认为我国有望通过充分发掘贸易互补优势、避免过度竞 *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: ^351916072^ 
争，深化同各国能源领域的良性互动。
EVOLUTIONARY CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPETITIVE & COMPLEMENTARY RELATIONSHIPS OF ENERGY TRADE IN BRICS——UNDER COMPLEX NETWORKS PERSPECTIVE
ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of the BRICS economies, energy trade has become a significant issue among these countries to alleviate energy shortages, make use of energy endowments, and optimize energy structures. Taking coal, oil, and natural gas as examples, this paper builds energy trade networks based on the complex network theory, and explores the evolutionary characteristics of the network structure and the competitive & complementary relationships from 2009 to 2018. The result shows that the connectivity of natural gas networks is always high, and the types of trade relations are becoming more and more complex; the connectivity of coal and oil networks is lower, and the clustering phenomenon is more obvious. Among the BRICS countries, India occupies the core position of the network, China, Russia, and South Africa occupy dominant positions, while Brazil has the weakest network position. The analysis of trade relations based on the blockmodel shows that in the past ten years, China and its major competitors are in a balanced plate, there is a wide range of energy trade competition with countries in the same plate and the entire trade network; the complementary trade relationship between the inside and outside of the plate is increasing, showing the opportunities for energy exports are emerging. This paper believes that China is expected to deepen the positive interaction with various countries in the energy trade network by fully exploiting the complementary advantages and avoiding excessive competition.

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