目录
摘要 II
关键词 II
Abstract III
引言
一、引言 1
二、文献综述 1
三、分析框架与数据来源 2
（一）各熟制区域概况 2
（二）资料来源 3
1．气象数据 3
2. 产量数据 3
（三）分析方法 3
1. 气候因子 3
2. 各区域作物气候产量变化 3
3. 气候因子对作物气候产量的影响 4
四、实证结果与分析 4
（一）各区域气候变化 4
1.一年一熟制区域 4
2.两年三熟制区域 5
3.一年两熟/三熟制区域 5
（二）各区域作物气候产量变化 6
1.一年一熟制区域 6
2.两年三熟制区域 7
3.一年两熟/三熟制区域 8
（三）各区域气候变化对作物气候产量的影响 8
1.一年一熟制区域 8
2.两年三熟制区域 10
3.一年两熟/三熟制区域 12
五、研究结论与政策建议 13
参考文献： 14
致谢 17
不同熟制区域气候因子对作物气候产量的影响研究
摘 要
本文按照作物熟制，将中国划分为三个区域，探讨各区域气候变化对作物气候产量的影响，为各熟制区域的作物布局提供科学依据。利用国家统计局《中国农村统计年鉴》19812014年的作物产量省级数据和中国气象科学数据共享服务网提供的同期降雨和温度观测数据，利用五年滑动平均法和三年滑动平均法模拟趋势产量，以计算气候产量，然后对每种作物的气候产量求取各区域均值再利用最小二乘法以及折线图观察各区域作物气候产量的变化特征；再利用最小二乘法和折线图观察各区域的年均温以及年降雨量的变化特征。从气候数据中提取出各季节最高温、最低温、气温均值、活动积温、生长积温以及累积降雨量等气候因子，利用固定效应模型探究各区域气候因子对作物气候产量的影响。研究结果显示，同一熟制区域内各气候因子对于不同作物气候产量的影响不同，各气候因子 *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: #351916072# 
对不同熟制区域同一作物气候产量的影响也存在显著差异：一熟制区域内，最高温对小麦气候产量影响较大，最低温对水稻和大豆气候产量影响较大，同时两种极端气温都对玉米气候产量有较大影响，同时降雨量是水稻、大豆和玉米气候产量的关键影响因子，降雨量和均温都对小麦气候产量有影响；两年三熟制区域内，降雨量是水稻气候产量的关键影响因子，而均温则是小麦、玉米和大豆的关键影响因子，同时最低温对水稻气候产量影响较大；一年两熟/三熟制区域内，温度是影响该区域作物气候产量的关键因子，降雨量仅对小麦和大豆气候产量有微弱影响，极端气温对水稻、小麦和玉米气候产量影响较大，对大豆气候产量影响较小。
Study On The Effects Of Climatic Factors In Different Ripening
Regions On Crop Climatic Yield
ABSTRACT
In this paper, dividing china into three regions according to the cropping system, and discussing the effects of climate change on crop yield in each region. By the National Bureau of Statistics of China rural statistical yearbook of crop yields in 19812014 provincial meteorological data and China science data sharing service network to provide the same period of rainfall and temperature observation data, using five years moving average method and simulation trend yield three years moving average method, to calculate the climate production, and then calculate the yield for each crop climate regional average using the least square method and line chart to observe the change of regional climate yield characteristic; Using the least square method and line graph to observe the characteristics of annual temperature and annual rainfall. Extracting climatic factors such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, accumulated temperature of activity, accumulated temperature of growth and accumulated rainfall from climatic data in each season, and exploring the influence of regional climatic factors on crop climatic yield by using fixed effect model. Results show that the same cropping region climate factor for different climate yield is different, the influence of the climate factors on the influence of different cooked area the same climate yield also exist significant differences: In the region of one ripenery system in a year, the most ininfluence on high temperature climate on yield of wheat, the most influence on low temperature climate on rice and soybean yield, and at the same time both extreme temperatures of corn has a great influence on climate production, at the same time, rainfall is the key to the rice, soybeans and corn production climate impact factor, rainfall and temperature all have an effect on wheat yield climate; In the region of three ripenery system in two years, rainfall was the key factor affecting the climatic yield of rice, while average temperature was the key factor affecting wheat, corn and soybean. In the region of two/three ripenery system in a year, temperature is the key factor affecting crop climatic yield. Rainfall has only a slight impact on wheat and soybean climatic yield, while extreme temperature has a greater impact on the climatic yield of rice, wheat and corn, and a smaller impact on soybean climatic yield.

原文链接：http://www.jxszl.com/jmgl/jjymy/605869.html